O próprio FMI achava que a renda era mal estimada:
Brazil's economy
Bigger than thought
Fonte: The Economist
WHEN it comes to economic growth, Brazil has long been seen as something of a laggard. But it turns out that the country's economy in 2005 was 10.9% bigger than previously thought and has grown since 2000 at an annual average rate of 3%, rather than 2.6%. That still lags the world (see chart) but is a bit more respectable.
So, at least, reckons the government's statistics institute, IBGE. It has redone its sums, relying more on data from annual surveys and less on dubious rules of thumb. In particular, it now thinks that services account for 64% of GDP, rather than 54%.
A bigger number for the economy changes several important ratios. ABN AMRO, a bank, reckons that net public debt was probably 45% of GDP last year rather than 50%, which may help Brazil's credit rating. The notoriously onerous tax burden was slightly lighter than it seemed: in 2003 taxes claimed 32% of GDP rather than 34%.
But the problem of under-investment looks more pronounced. Gross spending on fixed capital was just 16.3% of GDP in 2005, compared with an earlier estimate of 19.9%. Investment may be more productive—spending on machines and equipment rose as a share of GDP while construction fell—but the overall rate is still too low to produce tigerish growth.
There are other reasons to think that Brazil is better off than generally realised. In a recent paper
*, two IMF economists argue that official data “grossly underestimate” the growth of household income. Brazil's economic opening in the early 1990s lowered prices and improved the quality and availability of goods, changes that were largely missed by the consumer-price index. Using data about what people actually consumed, the economists estimate that income per head grew 4½% a year between 1987 and 2002 compared with the official figure of 1½%, with the poor benefiting most. That makes Brazil look better; it makes economic reform look better, too.
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Ontem o risco-país chegou ao mínimo histórico e foi anunciado que algumas empresas irão conseguir o grau de investimento!